LorfTVP

I think it's a shame and a reflection on the state of major league baseball when the Diamondbacks are pretty much trading away too much talent for Johnson solely to boost ticket sales. I know they're team is coming around and with one of the best farm systems in the majors they're going to compete in a couple of years time, but Johnson now doesn't help...it's about the same as Zito to the Giants, money.

And Plow, don't complain about rotation troubles to us, I'm sure you've heard of our troubles. Of course it began by trading away Bronson Arroyo to the Reds for Wily Mo Pena, Arroyo eventually becoming one of the best pitchers in the National League. I mean, it's no Joe Thornton, but it bit us in the ass when our starters started dropping like flies. We had to start 14 different guys, you started 12 but your top 5 had 33, 33, 32, 27, and 11 games started...that's pretty damn good all things considered. Our top 5 had 33, 31, 23, 15, and 12 GS. We dealt with injuries to Wakefield, Lester, Clement, and Wells (who took a ball to his just repaired knee in a twist of irony). We suffered the entire year with out rotation, your top 4 pretty much threw every single pitch. I don't want to see a single Yankee fan consider a rotation of Mussina, Pettite, Wang, (Igawa, Sanchez, Pavano, Hughes, Karstens, Rasner) better than the Red Sox set rotation of Schilling, Beckett, Matsuzaka, Papelbon, and Wakefield. Plow, you of all people know the success rates of prospects, especially pitchers, in the major leagues. You're ready to anoint all these young guys as gods without considering for a single second that one of them couldn't be ready, that one could crash and burn. Six starts in the major leagues doesn't mean you're ready, it just means that no one has a book on you yet to take advantage of your many weaknesses. We'll see how things turn out, and this isn't just bias, but I'd take stability and three 26 year old fireballing righthanders over your instability right now.

dodgers offense is worse than last year. their pitching is solid but schmidt and penny were very hot and cold last year. no one's rotation in the NL west can touch ours--especially if Peavy's shoulder tendinitis is gone

Current Padres projected starters:

POS PLAYER

C Josh Bard

1B Adrian Gonzalez

2B Marcus Giles

3B Kevin Kouzmanoff

SS Khalil Greene

LF Russell Branyan

CF Mike Cameron

RF Brian Giles

POS PLAYER

SP1 Jake Peavy

SP2 Chris Young

SP3 Greg Maddux

SP4 Clay Hensley

SP5 Mike Thompson

CL Trevor Hoffman

Added

----------

POS PLAYER HOW ACQUIRED

LF Jose Cruz Jr. Agreed/LAD

2B Marcus Giles Signed/ATL

SP Greg Maddux Signed (A)/LAD

RP Andrew Brown Trade/CLE

3B Kevin Kouzmanoff Trade/CLE

RP Heath Bell Trade/NYM

RP Royce Ring Trade/NYM

Lost

------

POS PLAYER HOW ACQUIRED

RP Alan Embree Signed (B)/OAK

LF Ryan Klesko Signed (B)/SFO

DH Mike Piazza Signed (A)/OAK

CF Dave Roberts Signed (A)/SFO

SP Woody Williams Signed (A)/HOU

RP Scott Williamson Signed/BAL

2B Josh Barfield Trade/CLE

LF Ben Johnson Trade/NYM

RP Jon Adkins Trade/NYM

Well, the Padres lineup doesn't exactly leave anyone shivering in their boots. Marcus Giles isn't the most inspiring move in the world, though I have confidence in him, since he helped my team during his rookie year. Jose Cruz Jr. should help all around too...plus Maddux is a great signing, no doubt, but you did lose Piazza's bat, and who knows, maybe the reason Bard did so well was the rest with Piazza. You lost Roberts solid performance along with some young blood. You got some middle relievers but they fluctuate year to year. I honestly think that they Padres aheva s much of a chance as the Dodgers in the division. I also feel like the Dodgers have a top 4 to their rotation while you guys have a top 3 1/2...that can make a world of difference.

my predictions are still under construction but what's bad about the Dodgers? They got stronger I think.

Well, here are the Dodgers current projected starters...

C Russell Martin

1B Nomar Garciaparra

2B Jeff Kent

3B Wilson Betemit

SS Rafael Furcal

LF Luis Gonzalez

CF Juan Pierre

RF Andre Ethier

POS PLAYER

SP1 Jason Schmidt

SP2 Derek Lowe

SP3 Brad Penny

SP4 Randy Wolf

SP5 Hong-Chih Kuo

CL Takashi Saito

Added

---------

POS PLAYER HOW ACQUIRED

LF Luis Gonzalez Signed (A)/ARI

C Mike Lieberthal Signed (A)/PHI

CF Juan Pierre Signed (B)/CHC

SP Jason Schmidt Signed (A)/SFO

SP Randy Wolf Signed/PHI

Lost

---------

POS PLAYER HOW ACQUIRED

LF Jose Cruz Jr. Agreed/SDG

RF J.D. Drew Agreed/BOS

RP Eric Gagne Signed/TEX

C Toby Hall Signed/CHW

CF Kenny Lofton Signed/TEX

SS Julio Lugo Signed/BOS

SP Greg Maddux Signed (A)/SDG

RF Jayson Werth Signed/PHI

The Dodgers have a better than solid rotation, in fact a very good one, and Randy Wolf may prove to be a great steal. They're going young in the outfield, granted the Pierre signing was ill advised, and Betemit has great talent. I feel like they're going to compete not only because it's a weak division but because they have one of the richest farm systems in the majors and they didn't trade anyone away. Furcal can't be worse than he was last year...and hopefully Garciaparra can remain healthy. Kent's days are coming to an end but he can still knock out 20 dingers. I think just on the strength of their pitching they'll be competing with the Padres for the division lead. The Giants overspent on a pitcher who isn't that good to lead their rotation. Think of how far they got with Schmidt, replace him with the lesser Zito, add a year to everyone on the team, and look at all the old FAs they signed...they will not compete.

AL East

----------

Boston Red Sox - Chalk it up to bias but I think that we have an incredibly strong rotation if it lives up to the potential and our strong offense has only gotten better with the addition of Drew and Lugo. The most important move of the offseason was definitely keeping Manny Ramirez though. While the bullpen still has holes, I expect the Sox to compete for the division lead.

New York Yankees - C'mon, Yankee fans love to point out questions about the Red Sox but they have plenty as well. A lot depends on a trade of Randy Johnson, but besides that, there's Pavano and Johnson's health, Igawa's transition to the majors, and some questions in the bullpen. It feels weird to say that but I think that the Yankees are depending too much on prospects right now...I know. With Igawa, Rasner, Karstens, Hughes, Britton, that's a lot of young blood that isn't going to burst out of the gate with sparkling performances. I've pointed this out before but look no further than the Red Sox last year, granted many of our young guys were thrust into the spotlight because of all the injuries, but people faltered. Your offense should be better with full years of Matsui and Abreu though.

Toronto Blue Jays - They didn't take the step forward they needed to with their rotation and middle infield but Frank Thomas will help them at least be good spoilers. They'll challenge for the division lead for a month or so before falling off. Roy Halladay will continue to own opposing batters and AJ Burnett won't hurt either.

Tampa Bay Devil Rays - I still believe in these guys! Despite the beauty of Camden Yards, the Orioles aren't a likable team when compared to the scrappy Devil Rays. Due to their surplus of outfielders, expect someone to be traded at the deadline to a contender for a pitching prospect. Expect Scott Kazmir's performance to continue to get better with various fluctuations from positional players.

Baltimore Orioles - What did they do? They overspent for their bullpen and resigned Jay Gibbons and signed Huff and Payton, that's about it. They have some good young starters but I don't see this team getting any better. They will rue the money spent in the bullpen in these coming years. If their play goes down the shitter, Miguel Tejada will be heard again.

AL Central

-------------

Detroit Tigers - They haven't lost anyone and are only a year removed from history. They had a nifty addition of Gary Sheffield as well which should help them score runs. Good young pitching too, can't beat that.

Chicago White Sox - As much as I'd love to put the Indians here, the White Sox have dominated recently on the strength of their rotation, and despite trading Garcia and McCarthy, have added Gavin Floyd, John Danks, and Gio Gonzalez to the mix.

Cleveland Indians - The Indians were remarkably quiet this winter but that didn't stop them from solidifying their 2b position and closer with Joe Borowski, despite his question marks. I feel that a full season of Travis Hafner (what a monster!) and gradual improvements from this young team out of the spotlight could make them a fringe contender for the AL Central title.

Minnesota Twins - I know most people forget that the Twins won the AL Central last year but most of that was solely on the shoulder of one Francisco Liriano. Their rotation, after Santana, is nothing but Carlos Silva and prospects (Bonser, Garza, and Baker). With Liriano missing time and Brad Radke's retirement, the Twins will be competing solely off of Santana, Mauer, and Morneau. They've never really had a team team, granted they have a low payroll, but their spots tend to be filled in by fillers, simply put.

Kansas City Royals - Hahahahaha. But hey, watch some of their young guys. I really would like to see David Dejesus take a big step up. And don't forget Alex Gordon, the number one hitting prospect in all of baseball, will most likely be starting this season. That will be something to watch.

AL West

-----------

Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim - One of the biggest factors for this team right now is Bartolo Colon actually pitching. He's a fatass bastard but he can pitch. With possibly the strongest rotation in the division and the strongest bullpen in the majors, the Angels will be depending on some of their prospects to step it up. Howie Kendrick who hit .361 in the minors has yet to translate that to a big league average. Matthews will do great defensively but who knows about whether or not his career year will carry over. The loss of Rivera really hurts and Shea Hillenbrand won't fill in the hole, but you could do worse...I guess.

Oakland Athletics - With a strong rotation led by a healthy Rich Harden, the Oakland Athletics will try to claim the AL West title once again. Their offense is pretty much the same sans Jay Payton and with Piazza replacing Thomas. Expect the same station to station baseball from the offense with the hopes of the team resting on the rotation.

Texas Rangers - I think they have a chance to claim the second spot in the division with their strong infield offense (Hank Blalock and Mark Teixeira can't possibly revert even more) and decent starting rotation. Hicks showed his willingness to compete this year by trading away John Danks for Brandon McCarthy and signing Eric Gagne. I'm rooting for them, VG.

Seattle Mariners - Ouch...and I mean ouch. Looking at the market, the Mariners made one of the worst trades of the offseason sending Rafael Soriano to the Braves for Horacio Ramirez. If Chad Cordero and Mike Gonzalez are demanding that much, imagine how much Soriano in a bidding war would've gotten the Mariners...not to mention the pointless trade for Vidro who hasn't done anything in three years. Watch Ichiro leave the team at the end of the season, sending the Mariners even further towards the depths of the ocean they're accustomed to. I hope Felix Hernandez will take the next step forward though. I also expect Sexson to be traded midseason despite his hefty contract.

Ehh, I'll do NL later. But hey, I guess I'm not going to take the easy way out with these predictions, I'm not afraid to bump a team up because I like them and their chances.

Except for the agless one, Julio Franco.

Julio Franco happens to be my baby's daddy and I'll have you know that he has plenty of ags...more ags than you'll ever have.

OMG!!! I can think of alot better one...But it may be to graphic.

Too graphic? If you had photographic evidence of a fellow board member having a homosexual affair, wouldn't it be your civil and patriotic duty to show it to everyone else?

Oh I wasn't trying to dissrespect B. M., Basically, it's hearing about the wonderfull John Danks and Thomas Diamond, and how they are the future of Rangers pitching and how they together and along with Tejada, Volquez etc are going to save the Rangers future. Then starting to see them beging their journey to being stars elsewhere, plus, i've seen the mighty John Daniels masterfull tardes enough already, I can't bare to see another Chris Young and Adrian Gonzalez traded for a rental. Not saying thats the case with BM, but, ya see what I'm getting at?

Yah, but these things happen. We, as fans, don't have that much power but we do what we can believing in our teams and the moves they make. I hope for success for the Rangers, just to mix things up. You break the pattern and capture your division and we'll capture ours, deal?

I just hate giving up top minor league pitching, especially for a guy who has proved virtually nothing. I mean, I really don't see the plus for us, we gave up a potentially good SP and gained a potentially good SP. I understand trading projected talent for proven talent, but I'd rather get something a bit more proven. Ofcourse I don't see alot of Sox games, I basically only really pay attention to the Rangers and maybe the O's just because i live where I do. But i'm not really knowledgable in other teams really young players. for the most part.

Well, there's the satisfaction of knowing that your team drafted a guy and he made it through to the major leagues to not only be a star but a fixture of the team. Now I think you're not giving Brandon McCarthy enough credit. He's a good pitcher who was thrust into long relief because the White Sox, one of the few teams who had five good starters the last couple of years, were full in the rotation with Garcia, Buehrle, Garland, Vazquez, and Contreras. He only spent four seasons in the minors though, I don't know why he spent only one in triple A...I seriously doubt contractual reasons. Probably they wanted to break him into the majors the old fashioned way with starting him as a reliever. Hey, it worked for Liriano, but he had undeniable talent as is. McCarthy, though good in the minors, only mustered a 3.39 minor league ERA with a 1.09 WHIP and 10.26 K/9 and 1.76 BB/9. One has to like the ratios though...and despite having problems with the gopher ball, Ameriquest Field is probably less of a hitters park than US Cellular in terms of homeruns right now. VG, as of right now, Brandon McCarthy is a Texas Ranger and he deserves the respect that you'd give to any other member of your cherished team.

the 26 mil doesn't have a 40% luxury tax on it. Thats why it's better.

That's true, but if you trade Randy, either Zito or Clemens will undoubtedly demand more money than 17 million.

Yeah i saw that, dumb if you ask me. But what the fuck do i know?

A decent amount, from what I've seen. I guess the Rangers are trying to move forward in an AL West division that hasn't exactly strengthened itself too much this offseason. The A's, Angels, and Mariners haven't improved much with the Athletics signing Piazza and Embree, the Angels signing Matthews Jr., Speier, and Darren Oliver, and the Mariners signing Miguel Batista and Jose Guillen. This gives the Rangers another big league starter who they can slot behind Millwood and Padilla while giving up a heralded but inconsisent uber-prospect (granted he's been younger than his competition) who will help bolster the starters in the White Sox wings who is younger and more affordable. Once again it'll be a three team race in the AL West for most of the season. You should be worried about a healthy Rich Harden.

How about this? Shotgun anybody? Not bad for Paint, I suppose...just wait until I can get back to my own computer and Photoshop.

Trade

Wow...John Danks being traded. Granted Brandon McCarthy is a great pitcher who will finally get to start but I never expected a move like this.

Rangers get: Brandon McCarthy, David Paisano

White Sox get: John Danks, Nick Masset, Jacob Rasner

VG?

Like Kay said, Jap pitchers for the most part don't excel here. If Mat can get his screwball going here he'l be great, if not he'llbe another Irabu. His one out will nbe if he can get a change up like Santana or a curve like Nolan. I dunno who the Sox' pitching coach is, but I have a feeling that Mat will need to learn alot about American offspeed.

Iguana, he has bust written all over him.

Matsuzaka has four plus pitches so while the screwball will complement the rest, he doesn't necessarilly need it, at least not in the beginning, to dominate. I still have every ounce of confidence in the guy...scouts are gushing over him and you can usually trust them.

You have a good point with the fielding percentages, but it's a stupid stat.

 

3b has morphed into a position now where a home run guy is more important than a guy who can field his position. Just look at the jokes who play 3b. As long as you can put up 30 homers, no one cares about your defense.

 

There are so many more skilled SS's CF's 2b's and C's to even consider before you start talking about Lowell's defense.

 

I dont know how Torri Hunter isn't even on the list. Ichiro too.

True, true. I guess it's all favoritism...note how the top three players are from the Red Sox, Mets, and Tigers. Maybe Lowell isn't the best player as the poll says but he's definitely tops at his position and I think that you can't take that away from him. Once again, the US needs to learn a lesson from their WBC defeat and the victory of the Japanese...fundamentals can do a world of good.

Hey, at least I have an argument for Lowell.

Hideo Nomo, 2 good years then a diszpearing act that could make Criss Angel cringe?

I see that more for Igawa than for Matsuzaka, just from the perspective of scouts. We'll both knock on wood for our own pitchers I guess.

they use smaller balls in Japan which equals more movement and speed. no Japaneses pitcher really does good with the exception of a few.

True, but Japanese pitchers are also a lot better at striking batters out and keeping them off base. The major difference is going to be in HR rates.

lorf dont say it's all biased towards the yanks and then try to justify mike lowell winning defensive player of the year.

 

Lowell didn't even win a gold glove at his position. He's not even a top 15 defensive player in the majors.

**twitch** I was writing this long defense of Lowell but the optical mouse on this computer isn't on a mousepad and it just jumped to the upper right corner and closed the window...arrgh. But okay, just to reiterate, I defended Lowell winning up top. The players that were on the ballot were, in order of votes: Mike Lowell, Carlos Beltran, Ivan Rodriguez, Joe Crede, Omar Vizquel, Adam Everett, Mark Ellis, Brandon Inge, Mike Cameron, and Orlando Hudson. I will once again point out that Chavez wasn't on the ballot and go further on to point out that despite equal .987 FPCT, Lowell played 150 more innings in the field, amassing only one more error. I'd have to think that playing equal defense for a prolonged period of time is worth respect. In terms of range factor and zone rating, Lowell ranked 3rd and 4th while Chavez ranked 6th and 16th.

And to defend the fact that Mike Lowell is a top 15 defensive player, I will go over the top 10 fielding percentages at each position to show how striking the difference between the top defensive players and the secondary ones are.

C - .998, .998, .997, .996, .995, .995, .993, .993, .993, .991

1b- .998, .997, .997, .997, .996, .996, .996, .996, .995, .995

2b- .997, .995, .994, .994, .991, .989, .988, .987, .987, .985

SS- .993, .990, .989, .984, .981, .980, .978, .977, .977, .975

3b- .987, .987, .978, .968, .965, .965, .965, .963, .963, .963

LF- 1.000, .996, .996, .994, .991, .991, .990, .989, .988, .986

CF- 1.000, .997, .997, .996, .996, .995, .995, .994, .993, .993

RF- .996, .996, .992, .990, .987, .983, .982, .981, .981, .981

P- .1000 ---->

Nowhere is the dropoff as evident than at third base which is a testament to the amazing defensive play of both Lowell and Chavez. Top 15, no doubt in my mind.

Just to spark some arguments, here are some respected projections for Daisuke Matsuzaka:

ZiPS: 186 IP, 15 wins, 3.44 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 6.3 K/9

PECOTA/Baseball Prospectus: 187.3 IP, 4.01 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 8.0 K/9

Hardball Times (conservative translation of '05 stats): 215 IP, 3.44 ERA, 7.9 K/9

Ron Shandler: 185 IP, 15 wins, 3.46 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 9.5 K/9

Rotoauthority.com: 210 IP, 15 wins, 3.41 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 8.2 K/9

Me: 540 IP, 46 wins, 1.84 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, 1,000,000,000.6 K/9

i know the flaws of my team, dont worry.

 

Melky is not one of them, you can argue he was the best positional rookie in the AL last year. Then to add he is only 22, and I see know point in trading him.

 

Dont worry, you just want him gone because you remember his game saving catch on manny's home run, and his double off Papelbon that was followed by a Jeter single to give good ol Pap a big blown save.

 

The kid is fearless.

As long as I've known Plow he's had a good head on his shoulders...granted we argue all the time and never check back to see who won, but I'll guess it's even, owing to my divine brilliance. As to Melky, good young player but he's not going to set the world on fire in any way. And sorry, Plow, this isn't me being anti-Yankee, but I think Johjima definitely wins out as positional AL ROY.

And on a side note, did anyone ever know about YankeesRedSox.com? **sigh** But the Yankees are first.

You'll need pitching help by then. Might I suggest David Wells?

How about Jesse Orosco?

IMO there both ganna be flops

Good thing it's just your opinion.

even if he lives up to whatever you think he's supposed to live up to. I'm positive it's not worth 70 mil over 5 years.

No doubt, but what can we fans really do other than hope? This isn't one of those absolutely brain dead decisions that everyone saying it is...we didn't just sign Juan Pierre for five years 45 million, we didn't sign Gil Meche for five years 55 million. Granted we paid more, but at least the talent level is in the same ballpark as the price we paid.

looks like 5 years 20 mil, some sites are saying 4 yrs 20 mil.

 

Either way, I'd rather take that than Gil Meche or Ted Lilly.

 

I cant wait for Igawa vs Matsuzaka, and Matsui hits a home run off dice!

Yeah, a solo shot while the Matsuzaka allows one run in 7 innings with 6 Ks and Igawa gives up 5 in 5 1/3 innings.

Bleggh, Simmons just went through all the mail he got and found the most negative ones toward Drew. I will just continue to state that we know what he's capable of and let's just hope that his arthritic shoulder doesn't sap his power.