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Aging running backs come with plenty of risk for fantasy owners
By Michael Fabiano NFL.com
Fantasy Editor
Published: July 6, 2009 at 09:58 a.m.
Updated: Aug. 27, 2009 at 11:29 a.m.
Liked: 19 | Comments: 131
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Jeff Gross / Getty ImagesChargers running back LaDainian Tomlinson is more of a fantasy risk this season at age 30.
Running backs take more physical punishment than any other offensive skill position, so it's no shock that some tend to break down once they close in on the age of 30.
Throughout the history of the NFL, even the best backs have seen their numbers fall closer to their 30th birthdays. Eric Dickerson, Marshall Faulk, Eddie George, Franco Harris and O.J. Simpson are just a few of the names that found pro football more difficult at an extended age, and their numbers showed that to be true.
With that in mind, owners should proceed with caution with these 10 runners, who have had excessive carries or will be 28 or older in 2009.
TeamPlayerAnalysis<br clear="all">Denver Broncos<br clear="all">[/url]Buckhalter, who will turn 31 this October, is in the mix for the top spot on the Broncos depth chart. While is our projected favorite to start, Buckhalter will be drafted in some fantasy leagues if he beats out in training camp. The veteran has had multiple surgical knee procedures and will be a member of a backfield committee at best, though, so his impact will be very limited.
TeamPlayerAnalysis<br clear="all"><br clear="all">A former fantasy superstar, Johnson hasn't been the same player since he ran the ball 416 times in 2006. He's missed 12 games over the last two seasons, and the fact that he'll turn 30 in November is a red flag. Sure, he could have a 1,000-yard season in the offense of coach Todd Haley, but don't expect a consistent level of production. He should be seen as no more than a No. 2 fantasy back in 2009 drafts.
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Jones, who will turn 31 before the start of the season, rushed for 1,312 yards and scored an impressive 15 total touchdowns in 2008. Despite those heroics, the veteran's value is still falling in fantasy circles. Aside from his age, Jones will see more stacked fronts and is destined to lose carries to and . As a result, he should be considered a No. 2 fantasy runner at best.
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Lewis saw statistical decreases across the board last season and is coming off ankle surgery, so he's become a major risk. Also factor in his age (30) and the impressive numbers of rookie James Davis in the preseason, and Lewis is suddenly no longer a lock to be a true featured back. In fact, a committee situation wth Davis and could arise. Consider Lewis as a reserve at best.
TeamPlayerAnalysis<br clear="all"><br clear="all">McGahee turns just 28 in October, but extended carries and multiple knee surgeries make him physically older than is age. He broke down last season due to various injuries and required an offseason operation to clean out his injured ankle. Based on the fact that he averaged close to 300 carries from 2004-2007, not to mention an imminent backfield committee, and McGahee's value has fallen.
TeamPlayerAnalysis<br clear="all"><br clear="all">Age and the wear and tear of a featured role could be catching up with Fast Willie, who turns 29 in November. He's missed six games over the last two seasons due to injuries, and the presence of both and will make some owners pass on him in drafts. Parker is still atop the Steelers depth chart and will be a No. 2 fantasy runner, but he's a risk-reward selection.
TeamPlayerAnalysis<br clear="all"><br clear="all">Portis is the second-youngest back on our list -- he turns 28 in September -- but he's still weathered. The veteran has carried the ball at least 325 times in four of the last five seasons, and the end of his 2008 campaign was littered with various ailments. No one can question his talent and statistical impact, but Portis is at risk to break down despite his first-round status in fantasy football drafts.
TeamPlayerAnalysis<br clear="all"><br clear="all">Taylor, the oldest member of our list of running backs at 33, will compete with and for the top spot on the Patriots depth chart. However, he won't see a featured role even if he wins the battle in training camp, so don't expect him to make a Corey Dillon-type impact. In fact, this elder statesman should be seen as no more than a late-round fantasy reserve across the board.
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Tomlinson, a long-time fantasy stud, will be 30 at the start of the 2009 season. Age and the punishment of being a featured back for eight seasons wore on him in 2008, as he saw a decrease in his overall numbers. History dictates that L.T. will struggle to rebound and become an elite back once again, so it's hard to consider him as more than a high-end No. 2 fantasy back in most standard leagues.
TeamPlayerAnalysis<br clear="all"><br clear="all">One of the most versatile runners in the league, Westbrook has established himself as an elite fantasy player. However, the fact that he'll be 30 at the start of this season -- not to mention his offseason ankle surgery -- makes him a risk-reward option in all 2009 drafts. Fantasy leaguers who do take Westbrook also need to target rookie , who will be a very popular fantasy handcuff.